The Promise of “Free” Tuition and Program Design Features: Impacts on First-Time College Enrollment

Amy Y. Li and Denisa Gándara

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The authors analyze the impact of 32 sub-state college promise programs on the enrollment of first-time, full-time, credential-seeking students at public two-year colleges. Each program in the sample allows the use of financial aid at a single two-year college. The authors employ a series of difference-in-differences analyses on data from 1998–1999 to 2015–2016 and incorporate geographically based comparison groups. Their estimates suggest that promise programs yield average enrollment increases of 9%–22% at promise-eligible colleges. Effects of program design features vary. The effects of programs that award full tuition for a two-year degree and programs that award aid irrespective of other aid received (first-dollar programs) on initial college enrollments are indistinguishable from the effects of programs without such features. Programs with a need-based income threshold requirement are associated with lower enrollment increases than programs without an income threshold. The authors discuss policy implications and avenues for future research.