A Promising Trend? An Event History Analysis of Factors Associated With Establishing Single-Institution College Promise Programs

Jennifer A. Delaney and Elaine W. Leigh

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This study focuses on promise programs that provide financial awards to help a student attend a particular postsecondary institution based on geographic location. Using data primarily from the Delta Cost Project Database and the Penn AHEAD database of college promise programs, the authors tested internal determinants (postsecondary institutional characteristics, promise program features, state context) and diffusion factors (geographic proximity and network membership) that contributed to the timing of the introduction of 49 promise programs that limited attendance to a single two- or four-year institution and that were developed between academic years 1986 and 2014. Using event history analysis, including Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models, the authors show that both internal determinants and diffusion factors influenced the likelihood of institutions’ establishing promise programs. These findings provide conceptual and methodological contributions to understanding the factors that contribute to the spread of single-institution promise programs.